More on population projections

We stated in our earlier post on population projections that they are conditional and based on assumptions. These assumptions form the basis of predictions of what changes will occur in the population size and structure. 

It is critical to involve multiple stakeholders and experts in the determination of these assumptions because it allows for:

•       A thorough assessment of existing trends.

•       Identification of potential changes (political, economic, health, legal etc.) that can impact population trends going forward

•       Knowledge of subgroup trends that are not yet obvious at the population level (e.g. antenatal coverage increasing in remote rural areas)          

Revisting our July covid-19 projections

We made some projections on what the national covid-19 case count would be at the end of July. Now that July has ended, we compare the projected with the actual figures.

The initial projections were based on the daily increases in June. The projection ended at July 29th because the Ghana Health Service did not provide figures for June 30th. There are also no figures available for July 29th and so the comparison will be for July 28th.

What are population projections?

Population projections are generally an estimate of what the population will look like in future. 

More specifically, projections are an educated guess of the population size and structure based on assumptions about future population trends and analyses of current and historical trends. Population projections are conditional and the resulting figures are dependent on the underlying assumptions.