More on population projections

We stated in our earlier post on population projections that they are conditional and based on assumptions. These assumptions form the basis of predictions of what changes will occur in the population size and structure. 

It is critical to involve multiple stakeholders and experts in the determination of these assumptions because it allows for:

•       A thorough assessment of existing trends.

•       Identification of potential changes (political, economic, health, legal etc.) that can impact population trends going forward

•       Knowledge of subgroup trends that are not yet obvious at the population level (e.g. antenatal coverage increasing in remote rural areas)          

Examples of assumptions that can be used for population projections are:

•       Basic assumptions

•       E.g. population growth rates will remain similar to previous years

•       Fertility assumptions

•       E.g. family planning uptake expected to increase (expected decline)

•       Mortality assumptions

•       E.g. free health insurance expected to increase health care access (expected decline in deaths)

•       Migration assumptions

•       E.g. regional law passed to promote freedom of movement between countries (expected increase in emigration)