5 July 2020

Total Fertility Rates

The standard measure of fertility is the Total Fertility Rate (TFR).

Total Fertility Rate is the number of children than a woman has. TFR ranges from 1 in South Korea to 6.9 in Niger (2018 World Bank est.) with the top 25 highest fertility countries in sub-Saharan Africa, mainly from West and Central Africa.

Replacement level fertility is the level of fertility required for each generation to replace itself. Normally, 2 people would need to have 2 children to replace themselves. However at the population level the replacement TFR would have to be greater than 2 to account for the loss of children who will die before reaching adulthood. Replacement level TFR is thus considered to be 2.1 (in high mortality settings however, replacement level fertility would have to be higher because a greater proportion of children die in childhood).


As we can see in the graph below, some regions in the world are at below replacement level, indicating that they are not having enough children to replace themselves. That means their population size is shrinking over time. 

Comparison of total fertility rates (TFR) by region. TFR ranges from 1.7 in Europe and Central Asia to  4.7 in Sub-Saharan Africa